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 The Equity Risk Premium: The Long-Run Future of the Stock Market by Bradford Cornell, "The Equity Risk Premium--the difference between the rate of return on common stock and the return on government securities--has been widely recognized as the key to forecasting future returns on the stock market. Though relatively simple in theory, understanding and making practical use of the equity risk premium concept has been dauntingly complex--until now. In "The Equity Risk Premium, financial advisor, author, and scholar Bradford Cornell makes accessible for the first time an authoritative explanation of the equity risk premium and how it works in the real world. Step-by-step, his lucid, nontechnical presentation leads the reader to a new and more enlightened basis for making asset allocation choices. Cornell begins his analysis by looking at the equity risk premium in the light of stock market history. He examines the use of historical data in estimating future stock market performance, including the historical relationship between stock returns and risk premium, the impact of survival bias, and the effect of long-horizon stock and bond returns. Using the stock market boom of the 1990s as a case study, Cornell demonstrates what equity risk premium analysis can tell us about whether stock prices are high or low, whether the stock market itself may have changed, and whether indeed a new economic paradigm of higher earnings and dividend growth is now in place. Cornell analyzes forward-looking estimates of the equity risk premium through the lens of various competing approaches and assesses the relative merits of each. Among those scrutinized are the Discounted Cash Flow model, the Kaplan-Rubeck study, the Welch survey, and the Fama-French Aggregate IRR analysis.His insights on risk aversion theory, on the types of risk that have been rewarded over time, and on changing investor demographics all supply the sophisticated investor with important pieces of the risk premium puzzle.
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Equity premium puzzle - The equity premium puzzle refers to the phenomenon that observed average annual returns on stocks over the past century are higher, by approximately 6 percentage points, than returns on government bonds. Economists expect arbitrage opportunities would reduce the difference in returns on these two investment opportunities to reflect the risk premium investors demand when investing in relatively more risky stocks. Phosphodiester bonds - A phosphodiester bond is a group of strong covalent bonds between the phosphorus atom in a phosphate group and two other molecules over two ester bonds. Phosphodiester bonds are central to all life on Earth, as they make up the backbone of the strands of DNA. Deposit premium - A Deposit Premium is a type of insurance premium where the insured deposits money with the insurer to obtain perpetual insurance against the risk of a loss. Deposit premiums are unique from regular insurance premiums, because they are refundable should either the insured or the insurer chose to terminate the perpetual insurance. Premium fare - A premium fare is a premium fare on a public transport service.
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